Resilience of Property Prices Despite Record RBA Rate Hikes
Despite the Reserve Bank of Australia's unprecedented cash rate increases, property prices are showing resilience and are climbing once more. The scarcity of listings, record immigration, and constrained rental markets are key factors driving this trend. Tight supply, fueled by a nearly 20% drop in capital city listings and a surge in regional demand, has led to robust competition for quality properties.
Amidst the swift cash rate hikes by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), property prices have defied higher borrowing costs and resumed an upward trajectory.
Several factors contribute to the rise in property prices, with the national supply-demand dynamics prominently favouring the property market.
Tightened Supply:A recurring theme in recent years has been the constrained supply levels. During the pandemic, listings remained scarce while demand stayed robust. As interest rates climbed, demand slightly receded, however listings didn't rise. According to CoreLogic, capital city home listings are nearly 20% lower than last year and 26.4% below the long-term average. Regional listings also exhibit a sharp decline, being 32.9% below the previous five-year average. This tight supply has significantly bolstered prices, inducing fierce competition for quality properties.
Immigration Surge:The government's decision to increase immigration figures to 400,000-500,000 since late 2022 has substantially boosted property demand. This surge is compounded by a notable influx of international students. This heightened demand from newcomers is pressuring rental markets, as many migrants tend to rent before purchasing. CoreLogic data reveals an 11.5% surge in rents over the past year. Rental growth often translates into property price growth, as renters increasingly opt to buy homes, driving prices upwards.
Rental Pressure and Property Values:The influx of migrants has also strained rental markets, with vacancy rates hitting historic lows across various states. In response, migrants often turn to renting, pushing rents higher. This trend encourages renters to transition into homebuyers, further propelling property prices. Despite the RBA's rapid rate hikes, the property market's momentum persists, largely driven by individuals seeking primary residences. With limited market choices and a growing population, the push for housing is expected to maintain its impact on escalating property values.
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